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Met Office launches new suite of water supply models at Sustainable Water 2013
The Met Office will unveil its first suite of water supply models at Sustainable Water. The models provide detailed weather dependent leakage, demand, burst and turbidity data and are designed to assist water companies in managing water resource strategies and operations more proactively and efficiently.
Historically water demand, leakage, burst, seasonal night usage and turbidity have been difficult to quantify or forecast accurately across water company networks and resource zones, because of the large weather dependency. Understanding this weather dependency enables accurate modelling and reporting of these components.
Launch of the new weather intelligence models follows a successful collaboration with Thames Water to make the suite of models available across the whole water industry. The models, which have been developed to include the Met Office's world leading weather data, can be adapted and calibrated to individual water company regions.
Michelle Spillar, Head of Utilities at the Met Office, says, "Our new modelling suite enables water companies to perform day by day network monitoring, forecast trends and analyse actual and predicted future events tailored to their specific network characteristics - offering multiple benefits and cost savings across water resources' strategy and operations."
The Met Office's suite of models consists of:
Burst model: Increases in pipe bursts during cold-weather winter periods can cause large fluctuations in workload and resources. Understanding and modelling weather related pipe bursts enables prediction of likely burst numbers on a 15day time scale, which allows for optimal resource deployment. Integration of the burst model into contingency planning and emergency response, allows some of the worst impacts of winter weather to be modelled and quantified with mitigation activities planned.
Leakage model: Leakages account for up to 30% of the total annual distribution input across the water company's network. This model assesses and predicts the influence of weather on winter leakage, and allows for the close management of weather related leakage, on a week by week basis. This, enablesing the water company to monitor and review its leakage strategy and expenditure on leakage reduction so planned work can be set against levels of risk.
Demand model: Summer water demand can vary by up to 10% according to the weather. This model can be used for long term strategic and short term operational demand modelling, prediction and water resource management. It allows water companies to manage service reservoir storage levels optimally, providing efficiencies in energy use and security of supply during peak periods. Maintenance activities and demand management measures, such as temporary use bans, can be undertaken accurately.
Seasonal night usage model: Allows seasonal usage increases, such as night usage of water in the summer, to be separated from leakage - enabling water companies to target detection resources effectively during the summer. Accurate assessments of true leakage early in the year can benefit leakage targeting later in the year.
Turbidity model: The measurement of turbidity, the cloudiness or haziness of a fluid, is a key test of water quality. The cost incurred in bringing the untreated water up to drinking water quality can increase the cost of production by up to five times. This model enables the relationship between heavy rainfall and turbidity to be modelled, helping manage resources and minimise the impact of high turbidity events.
To find out more about the new weather intelligence models or to discuss Met Office products and service please see the Met Office at Sustainable Water 2013 - Stand 101.
For further information please email Met Office